By Adam Pease
Looking Forward to Generative AI in the New Year
2023 was a groundbreaking year for artificial intelligence, with ‘generative AI’ becoming the hottest new technology in recent memory.
This blog discusses what we can look forward from the AI market as we move into the new year. What transformations and challenges will this emerging market face?
A Wider Diversity of Models
While ChatGPT stole the show in 2023 with its impressive use of the transformer AI architecture, combined with massive amounts of data and compute, we expect to see the generative AI space develop to include a wider family of models with different sizes and capabilities.
While large models with billions of parameters like those developed by OpenAI have been appealing, they also suffer from limitations associated with their extremely high compute requirements.
As a result, many leading AI organizations as well as open source developers have been working to develop smaller language models that harness better data in smarter ways, and finding methods to shrink or ‘quantize’ large models so that they can run on smaller devices. While 2024 may not be the year generative AI explodes on mobile platforms, AI models are showing themselves to be increasingly capable at smaller sizes.
Competition Is Going to Heat Up
It’s up for debate whether the generative AI startup ‘boom’ is nearing its end. Despite the excitement over ChatGPT and similar products, there is considerable skepticism about whether AI will be able to deliver the high-quality, customer-ready experiences that enterprises want to offer.
It remains to be seen also whether leading providers such as OpenAI will become the main service provider for the generative AI needs of enterprises, or if these businesses will opt for smaller, more specialized providers.
Aragon Research expects that small providers will have trouble leveraging their technology in a technology context that inherently depends on scale.
At the same time, we have seen large providers move slowly in response to generative AI hype, often due to concerns related to privacy, security, or legality.
Bottom Line
Generative AI shows no signs of slowing down as new market entrants experiment with alternative approaches to designing and scaling AI models.
Aragon Research expects tense competition and a wide swath of diverse product offerings to shape the year to come.
Get Ready for 2024 with Aragon’s 2024 Q1 Research Agenda!
Wednesday, January 17th, 2024 at 10 AM PT | 1 PM ET
Aragon Research’s 2024 Q1 Agenda
Aragon Research provides the strategic insights and advice you need to help your business navigate disruption and outperform your goals. Our research is designed to help you understand the technologies that will impact your business–using a number of trusted research methodologies that have been proven to help organizations like yours get to business outcomes faster.
On Wednesday, January 17th, 2024, join Aragon Research CEO and Lead Analyst, Jim Lundy for a complimentary webinar as they walk you through Aragon’s Q1 2024 research agenda.
This webinar will cover:
- Aragon’s coverage areas, analysts, and services
- Research offered by Aragon, including Visual Research
- The research agenda for Q1 2024
- Sneak peek at what’s coming in Q2 2024
